notgoodluck
0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3
- Realised P&L
- $-136.9k
- Volume
- $3.57M
- Markets traded
- 272
- Open portfolio
- $25.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded272
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.4kat 0.240Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
- +$8.0kat 0.340Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?
- +$7.9kat 0.807Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-16?
- +$7.8kat 0.160Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
- +$7.0kat 0.300Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 10:44 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.74 | $266.78 |
| 08-07 10:37 | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.6020838967 | $4.9k |
| 08-07 10:31 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.56 | $707.16 |
| 08-07 10:29 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.49 | $171.50 |
| 08-07 09:46 | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.32 | $307.21 |
| 08-07 09:45 | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.3217317078 | $626.24 |
| 08-07 09:45 | LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.32 | $584.60 |
| 08-07 09:38 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.4k |
| 08-07 07:30 | LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.78 | $717.04 |
| 08-07 07:23 | LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.85 | $199.61 |
| 08-06 22:11 | Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha | BUY | 0.73 | $11.86 |
| 08-06 20:16 | Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs | BUY | 0.54 | $968.93 |
| 08-06 16:21 | Valorant: GIANTX vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins | BUY | 0.33929184 | $1.7k |
| 08-06 11:59 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.31 | $65.94 |
| 08-06 11:43 | Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs | BUY | 0.74 | $2.4k |