notgoodluck
0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3
- Realised P&L
- $-157.2k
- Volume
- $4.75M
- Markets traded
- 386
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded386
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.602 | 0.625 | $3.1k | +$112.50 |
| Will FC Porto win on 2026-10-10? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.720 | $2.9k | +$81.70 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.065 | $436.29 | −$2.0k |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.034 | $184.31 | −$815.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.6kat 0.748Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$10.4kat 0.240Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
- +$8.0kat 0.340Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?
- +$7.9kat 0.807Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-16?
- +$7.8kat 0.160Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 14:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.602 | $3.0k |
| 09-21 08:15 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.002 | $5.50 |
| 09-19 16:59 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.85 | $6.7k |
| 09-19 07:42 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.83 | $8.0k |
| 09-18 17:06 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.82 | $6.0k |
| 09-18 16:58 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.79 | $11.8k |
| 09-16 14:48 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.71 | $10.7k |
| 09-16 11:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.6k |
| 09-13 16:54 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.5k |
| 09-13 16:05 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.3k |
| 09-13 08:16 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.87 | $457.84 |
| 09-13 00:14 | Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.1k |
| 09-12 14:42 | Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.3k |
| 09-12 10:52 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.0k |
| 09-11 13:41 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.65 | $246.01 |