PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Thomas-ke

0x413dee9cad6f155880c9121260d7b9523efdbdb8

Realised P&L
$-289.58
Volume
$11.5k
Markets traded
111
Open portfolio
$0.90

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded111
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration80.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? · No0.6400.018$0.36$12.44
Will Rodri be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? · Yes0.0900.007$0.35$4.15
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? · Yes0.0900.005$0.10$1.70
Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1400.004$0.09$2.71
Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? · No0.3700.000$0.00$7.40
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? · No0.6400.000$0.00$12.80
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? · No0.2500.000$0.00$5.00
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July? · Yes0.2900.000$0.00$5.80
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · No0.6410.000$0.00$32.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$10.50
Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? · No0.4600.000$0.00$9.20
Will Rafael Leao join Fenerbahce? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$6.40
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · Yes0.6700.000$0.00$13.40
Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00$1.65

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-06 08:15Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?SELL0.05$1.00
09-06 08:15Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?SELL0.03927$0.79
09-06 08:15Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?SELL0.011032$0.55
09-06 08:15Will Lionel Messi be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?SELL0.04$2.00
09-06 08:15Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?SELL0.19$3.80
09-06 08:15Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?SELL0.2$4.00
09-06 08:15Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?SELL0.11$5.50
09-06 08:15Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?SELL0.15$7.50
09-06 08:14Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?SELL0.4$8.00
09-06 08:14Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?SELL0.387408$19.37
09-06 08:14Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?SELL0.04685$0.94
08-21 03:47Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETBUY0.849999983$5.00
08-08 03:02Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?SELL0.742178$37.11
08-08 03:02Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?SELL0.68$34.00
08-07 00:33Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026?SELL0.84$4.00