0x413b9d26078b989103c5811e662bad00ec5db488
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $176.4k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $85.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$272.65at 0.398Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?
- +$180.90at 0.300Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
- +$152.47at 0.652Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?
- +$122.72at 0.649Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$120.74at 0.652Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 06:00 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $3.90 |
| 08-10 17:14 | Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $39.96 |
| 08-09 11:26 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.035 | $54.69 |
| 08-09 11:25 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.045 | $81.82 |
| 08-09 11:25 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1004393239 | $243.20 |
| 07-20 19:35 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.014140178 | $30.40 |
| 07-20 19:34 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.1182845642 | $37.32 |
| 07-18 10:58 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.77 | $102.92 |
| 07-18 10:56 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $210.26 |
| 07-06 10:14 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY | 0.5299999989 | $199.00 |
| 07-02 21:09 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $231.15 |
| 07-02 21:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.003 | $2.40 |
| 07-02 21:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.0323574468 | $15.21 |
| 06-28 20:31 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.427630382 | $28.21 |
| 06-17 14:15 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999993 | $199.00 |