0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce462
0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce462
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $379.2k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.375 | $5.9k | +$773.50 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.085 | $3.48 | −$16.52 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.135 | $3.41 | −$3.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.442Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.080Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$970.53at 0.076Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$910.00at 0.090US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$856.46at 0.319Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 16:57 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.4048088999 | $292.43 |
| 10-21 19:34 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3479652384 | $1.2k |
| 10-21 19:34 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0488394971 | $301.20 |
| 10-20 16:25 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.3018316514 | $1.2k |
| 10-15 21:54 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1198497433 | $239.29 |
| 10-15 21:54 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3560367608 | $732.45 |
| 10-15 21:53 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 21:05 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1174935521 | $183.17 |
| 10-15 21:05 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3389201366 | $560.67 |
| 10-10 21:51 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1376660711 | $359.54 |
| 10-10 21:51 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.2782291292 | $1.1k |
| 10-07 18:14 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $96.57 |
| 09-13 12:51 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | SELL | 0.0512199861 | $97.53 |
| 08-18 22:27 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | BUY | 0.3469455386 | $907.90 |
| 08-18 22:27 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $304.66 |