marceloooo
0x41229a1ccb957259c0d9cc0637b1f53444e95c11
- Realised P&L
- $-3.5k
- Volume
- $60.0k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $342.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.900 | $157.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? · No | 0.743 | 0.625 | $93.33 | −$17.67 |
| Will Lamine Yamal rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? · No | 0.882 | 0.750 | $59.91 | −$10.58 |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OPAI? · No | 0.770 | 0.700 | $32.20 | −$3.22 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.83 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$415.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.563 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$336.52 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.383 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$849.55 |
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.30 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? · No | 0.202 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$583.98at 0.165Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$371.04at 0.426Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
- +$202.51at 0.600Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$189.47at 0.552Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?
- +$135.24at 0.766Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 17:48 | Will Lamine Yamal rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | BUY | 0.8824762143 | $70.49 |
| 10-11 17:48 | Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $154.00 |
| 10-11 17:41 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | SELL | 0.971 | $33.98 |
| 10-11 17:40 | Will Nicolás Maduro rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | BUY | 0.7433035714 | $111.00 |
| 08-13 21:42 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.015 | $17.38 |
| 07-15 19:31 | Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.922 | $210.32 |
| 07-15 19:09 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $839.23 |
| 06-18 00:15 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.138 | $19.93 |
| 06-15 16:33 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 06-15 16:29 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.163 | $211.90 |
| 06-09 08:16 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $14.44 |
| 06-09 07:57 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699860865 | $60.36 |
| 06-09 07:56 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.068892838 | $3.86 |
| 06-09 07:55 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.122 | $25.01 |
| 06-09 07:54 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.245 | $9.80 |