Csikos
0x4114363da92359be548032b7ddcc666f6d8637c4
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $233.9k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $512.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.065 | $490.05 | −$2.5k |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? · No | 0.920 | 1.000 | $11.91 | +$0.95 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? · No | 0.982 | 1.000 | $11.00 | +$0.20 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 3? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$325.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$997.18at 0.975Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st?
- +$208.13at 0.960Putin to remain President of Russia through Monday?
- +$143.28at 0.996Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?
- +$109.15at 0.973Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?
- +$89.66at 0.989Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-14 11:33 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.5k |
| 01-13 22:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.973 | $3.9k |
| 01-13 21:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $908.20 |
| 01-13 21:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $871.08 |
| 01-13 21:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 01-13 14:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $31.76 |
| 01-13 11:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $754.12 |
| 01-13 10:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.8k |
| 01-09 20:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.72 | $70.54 |
| 01-09 19:53 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.96 |
| 01-09 16:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.8k |
| 01-09 16:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 9? | BUY | 0.9988920358 | $1.8k |
| 01-09 16:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $27.8k |
| 01-04 20:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.5k |
| 01-02 22:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 29-January 4? | BUY | 0.995 | $197.07 |