0x410d389f1DCDcdA12F6bC942C8022D40117e4C78-1776235108481
0x410d389f1dcdcda12f6bc942c8022d40117e4c78
- Realised P&L
- $-294.49
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 140
- Open portfolio
- $32.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded140
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFK Jr. Out by December 31? · Yes | 0.413 | 0.220 | $21.41 | −$18.78 |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · No | 0.550 | 0.745 | $11.44 | +$2.99 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET · Up | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET · Down | 0.399 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.113 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.50 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET · Up | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.84at 0.994US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$15.80at 0.898US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$15.12at 0.961US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$10.54at 0.934Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$9.40at 0.718Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 23:12 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | SELL | 0.3479136691 | $33.85 |
| 07-10 05:55 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.54 | $11.04 |
| 07-08 02:56 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.59 | $8.04 |
| 07-03 00:06 | Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.9979860419 | $10.01 |
| 07-02 21:30 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.981 | $6.05 |
| 07-02 06:09 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 06:08 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5499999931 | $20.00 |
| 07-01 22:15 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.992 | $10.05 |
| 07-01 22:14 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.975 | $20.11 |
| 07-01 22:14 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.153 | $1.36 |
| 07-01 05:23 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9689999993 | $20.00 |
| 07-01 05:22 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.00 |
| 07-01 03:27 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 06-30 20:03 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 06-30 04:03 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $20.00 |