BS-SA-JJ-Team
0x40f1ca46f0fa82daa50d8a35c9c753c42c2015f9
- Realised P&L
- $-34.6k
- Volume
- $1.02M
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $50.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.3kat 0.310US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$11.4kat 0.260US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$10.0kat 0.375US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$5.6kat 0.221US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.764Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 19:19 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.31 | $12.26 |
| 09-23 15:27 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.6k |
| 09-23 15:12 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.9003533493 | $1.1k |
| 09-23 15:12 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $142.83 |
| 09-23 15:09 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $158.70 |
| 09-23 15:05 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | SELL | 0.106 | $12.41 |
| 09-23 15:04 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.033 | $100.19 |
| 09-23 15:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $117.48 |
| 04-09 03:09 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.419 | $100.56 |
| 04-07 20:28 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.73 | $656.12 |
| 04-07 19:43 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | BUY | 0.6199163235 | $2.1k |
| 04-07 19:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.8870380762 | $442.63 |
| 04-07 18:04 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.873 | $244.42 |
| 04-07 08:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.51 | $20.19 |
| 04-06 07:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $600.45 |