skyasm
0x40df7ec627ea2f3f6a87cd6593192abfc20ec9b5
- Realised P&L
- $-937.60
- Volume
- $28.2k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $437.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.013 | $347.25 | +$97.26 |
| Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.003 | $89.99 | −$60.00 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners · Over | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.31 |
| Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Paris FC O/U 4.5 Corners · Over | 0.539 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$158.00 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$163.79 |
| AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Lille OSC O/U 3.5 Corners · Over | 0.662 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$582.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.008Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-30.89at 0.194Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 12:23 | Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0097191446 | $250.00 |
| 11-01 12:16 | Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0041671942 | $150.00 |
| 11-01 10:46 | Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Paris FC O/U 4.5 Corners | BUY | 0.5390638265 | $158.00 |
| 11-01 10:39 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0549959243 | $1.3k |
| 10-25 10:29 | AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Lille OSC O/U 3.5 Corners | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $182.90 |
| 10-25 10:29 | AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: Lille OSC O/U 3.5 Corners | BUY | 0.6197146722 | $400.00 |
| 10-20 17:20 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | BUY | 0.52 | $141.31 |
| 10-04 21:09 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.13 | $163.79 |
| 10-04 21:09 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.17 | $175.23 |
| 10-04 21:07 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.188217459 | $194.01 |
| 10-04 13:42 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0064094479 | $109.42 |
| 10-04 13:42 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0121440429 | $81.23 |