0x40dd8b4d99fbd8f70095bda410263b9f0008a0de
0x40dd8b4d99fbd8f70095bda410263b9f0008a0de
- Realised P&L
- $0.63
- Volume
- $192.05
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $7.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.963 | $1.60 | +$0.60 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.835 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.625 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? · No | 0.660 | 0.710 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.270 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.620 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.185 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.258Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.54at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$1.83at 0.359Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$1.54at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 14:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 04:30 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:17 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:15 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:24 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:23 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:18 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:26 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 22:25 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:24 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:21 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:19 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $72 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 18:19 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $185 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 08:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 00:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |