ttwong1
0x40c54e7f9fe32843a8174f927338e87d8fc85cba
- Realised P&L
- $-9.4k
- Volume
- $13.48M
- Markets traded
- 263
- Open portfolio
- $33.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded263
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo · Yes | 0.089 | 0.025 | $33.76 | −$89.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.2kat 0.006Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$36.0kat 0.004Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?
- +$34.5kat 0.015Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$31.1kat 0.006Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$25.7kat 0.005Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 13:21 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | SELL | 0.027911396 | $49.47 |
| 09-24 08:27 | Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.0208883008 | $31.21 |
| 09-21 10:00 | SBF released from custody in 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.00 |
| 09-20 02:58 | Tim Walz in jail by December 31? | SELL | 0.0191363992 | $21.75 |
| 09-14 03:06 | Will Relay launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0514127273 | $25.45 |
| 09-14 03:05 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $32.00 |
| 09-14 03:05 | Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | SELL | 0.06 | $48.46 |
| 09-14 03:05 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0044642492 | $47.03 |
| 09-11 06:41 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.0220274998 | $161.85 |
| 09-11 02:44 | Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | SELL | 0.0216780984 | $43.36 |
| 09-11 02:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0105553325 | $24.39 |
| 09-08 07:00 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.009 | $25.93 |
| 09-08 06:59 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $36.00 |
| 09-08 06:56 | Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $58.54 |
| 09-08 06:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.00889353 | $26.68 |