tradetesting
0x40c12fb35a21c8ab821e69bd406b547b1c5e89f7
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $74.5k
- Markets traded
- 4,369
- Open portfolio
- $2.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,369
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$243.13at 0.249Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
- +$94.39at 0.386Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
- +$72.42at 0.419Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage
- +$62.11at 0.587Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
- +$59.97at 0.445Dota 2: 1win vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 14:30 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $53.31 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.46 | $23.46 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $8.25 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.69 | $2.90 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.64 | $0.49 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28? | SELL | 0.171 | $0.04 |
| 09-08 14:30 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.14 |
| 09-04 15:02 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | BUY | 0.6499999618 | $3.40 |
| 09-04 14:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | BUY | 0.6199999847 | $3.25 |
| 09-04 14:22 | BNB Up or Down - September 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | BUY | 0.7599999692 | $3.95 |
| 09-04 13:37 | Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5903225775 | $3.05 |
| 09-04 13:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5499999431 | $2.90 |
| 09-04 13:10 | XRP Up or Down - September 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.7303896054 | $3.80 |
| 09-04 11:10 | Solana Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $3.90 |
| 09-03 15:58 | Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.70 |