A0A0A
0x40be599a6e7b50e7aacb593a6427d5fa06a3e067
- Realised P&L
- $-23.67
- Volume
- $43.4k
- Markets traded
- 3,175
- Open portfolio
- $72.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,175
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 19? · Yes | 0.696 | 1.000 | $37.35 | +$11.34 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 20? · Yes | 0.749 | 0.685 | $21.00 | −$1.95 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET · Down | 0.345 | 0.365 | $7.30 | +$0.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20? · Yes | 0.703 | 0.992 | $5.99 | +$1.74 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 20? · Yes | 0.666 | 0.018 | $0.78 | −$28.80 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET · Up | 0.170 | 0.005 | $0.10 | −$3.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET · Up | 0.332 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.30at 0.493Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
- +$50.80at 0.365Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
- +$50.16at 0.120Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
- +$48.62at 0.592Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$46.28at 0.339Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 10-20 08:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $19.72 |
| 10-20 07:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.84 | $5.26 |
| 10-20 07:07 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999942 | $9.84 |
| 10-20 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.7485510644 | $22.95 |
| 10-20 06:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8199999931 | $19.09 |
| 10-20 06:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | BUY | 0.81 | $19.44 |
| 10-20 06:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.85 | $19.72 |
| 10-20 06:02 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $9.84 |
| 10-20 05:06 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8521903699 | $9.57 |
| 10-20 05:04 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.7034482371 | $4.25 |
| 10-20 04:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $19.09 |
| 10-20 03:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.86 | $19.78 |
| 10-20 02:52 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.6665643309 | $29.58 |
| 10-20 02:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2100100887 | $9.46 |