0x40b07b363a3aaa81a9db81a7b14ed20041fc2b1e
0x40b07b363a3aaa81a9db81a7b14ed20041fc2b1e
- Realised P&L
- $-340.86
- Volume
- $46.2k
- Markets traded
- 141
- Open portfolio
- $3.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded141
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.50at 0.027Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?
- +$29.91at 0.057Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 22?
- +$18.13at 0.110Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 10?
- +$17.61at 0.009Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10?
- +$13.90at 0.030Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 04:24 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 88 and 92 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.0463926446 | $8.15 |
| 10-19 03:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.4247801147 | $8.89 |
| 10-18 14:16 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999933 | $7.95 |
| 10-18 14:15 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.0960234799 | $8.67 |
| 10-18 05:56 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.0773051153 | $6.98 |
| 09-29 03:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $19.63 |
| 09-28 15:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $5.34 |
| 09-28 14:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999853 | $15.00 |
| 09-28 14:43 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.4811084017 | $21.70 |
| 09-28 13:26 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999911 | $20.30 |
| 09-28 13:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $21.52 |
| 09-28 12:00 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999995 | $17.30 |
| 09-28 08:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $18.45 |
| 09-28 06:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.4824141609 | $17.80 |
| 09-28 03:45 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $18.73 |