tomyyouth
0x40a68ed774f2b568582b04a46a4758281a493c1f
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $36.9k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.910 | 0.925 | $2.8k | +$45.00 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.978 | $2.7k | +$46.20 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.715 | $1.1k | +$82.50 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · No | 0.350 | 0.215 | $93.63 | −$58.79 |
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$388.87 |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs · Iron Wing | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs · Team Liquid | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.711Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$640.00at 0.360Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?
- +$417.00at 0.865Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$348.84at 0.411Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
- +$294.99at 0.410Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 16:09 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | SELL | 0.7146048667 | $1.1k |
| 08-20 20:51 | Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.42 | $420.00 |
| 08-14 01:28 | Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | BUY | 0.441 | $88.20 |
| 06-18 19:14 | Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? | BUY | 0.41 | $38.04 |