thisissomuchfun
0x409add9d9fcf7cd12a975f7fbccb156e4ecdb58d
- Realised P&L
- $4.5k
- Volume
- $3.20M
- Markets traded
- 1,215
- Open portfolio
- $163.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,215
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12AM ET · Down | 0.522 | 1.000 | $154.92 | +$74.07 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1AM ET · Up | 0.520 | 0.565 | $8.47 | +$0.68 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12AM ET · Up | 0.429 | 0.001 | $0.11 | −$94.75 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 1AM ET · Up | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 4PM ET · Down | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.66 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 6PM ET · Up | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.88 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 3PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.10 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 9PM ET · Up | 0.197 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.142Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30?
- +$6.9kat 0.070Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 29?
- +$6.1kat 0.088Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 25?
- +$5.1kat 0.058Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29?
- +$4.3kat 0.076Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |
| 09-02 06:33 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | SELL | 0.988 | $0.02 |