conrad888
0x40681a2caeb67be0f7c281683eabff20c12ef4d6
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $85.7k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $977.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.009 | $385.05 | −$2.0k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.025 | $236.73 | −$378.72 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.015 | $163.78 | −$457.18 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.011 | $132.20 | −$658.66 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.015 | $59.45 | −$227.53 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? · No | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-18 22:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? | BUY | 0.0859849527 | $200.00 |
| 02-18 22:37 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 02-18 22:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $286.98 |
| 02-18 22:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0658066795 | $790.86 |
| 02-18 22:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0551984487 | $1.2k |
| 02-08 17:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0559257042 | $774.08 |