conrad888
0x40681a2caeb67be0f7c281683eabff20c12ef4d6
- Realised P&L
- $-3.3k
- Volume
- $143.0k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $344.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.017 | $159.43 | −$456.01 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.011 | $129.89 | −$491.06 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.013 | $55.35 | −$231.63 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? · No | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-692.17at 0.066Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$-2.3kat 0.053Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 12:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0088234619 | $106.04 |
| 10-08 10:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0037822663 | $171.33 |
| 02-18 22:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? | BUY | 0.0859849527 | $200.00 |
| 02-18 22:37 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 02-18 22:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $286.98 |
| 02-18 22:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0658066795 | $790.86 |
| 02-18 22:30 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0551984487 | $1.2k |
| 02-08 17:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0559257042 | $774.08 |