df4b
0x406299585dd4e949c5a0e8da630078f7dc0125c0
- Realised P&L
- $-80.02
- Volume
- $109.6k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $31.82
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.002 | $26.53 | −$97.26 |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.06 | +$0.00 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.06 | +$0.00 |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.06 | +$0.00 |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $1.06 | +$0.00 |
| Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $1.05 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.71at 0.007Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.55at 0.966Will someone else be inaugurated?
- +$0.45at 0.948Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$0.17at 0.602Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
- +$0.07at 0.997Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 11:20 | Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9969995005 | $1.05 |
| 07-02 11:19 | Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 07-02 11:19 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 07-02 11:15 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 07-02 11:15 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.06 |
| 05-07 08:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.998999199 | $1.11 |
| 05-07 08:13 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.11 |
| 05-07 08:12 | Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.22 |
| 05-07 08:11 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 Week of May 4 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.22 |
| 03-26 14:24 | Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $123.79 |
| 03-26 14:23 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on March 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 14:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 26? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 14:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 14:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? | BUY | 0.998999334 | $1.20 |
| 12-27 05:01 | Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $110.00 |