0x403be4209C3bb6683CdF5dbAfDa7D48e3B720Eff-1761605614930
0x403be4209c3bb6683cdf5dbafda7d48e3b720eff
- Realised P&L
- $-25.74
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $1.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 21%+? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.063 | $1.25 | −$6.15 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.010 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or higher on October 22? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.35 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 40 million views on day 4? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.30 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.32 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.17at 0.090Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 Search & other revenue be above $65B?
- +$1.68at 0.308Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5?
- +$1.40at 0.870Will Trudy peak at Category 3?
- +$1.40at 0.860Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $150 in October?
- +$1.10at 0.810Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 16:10 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $577.50 Week of October 19 2026? | SELL | 0.032 | $0.64 |
| 10-19 07:37 | Will DK Metcalf have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 10-18 04:38 | Will Marek Hattas win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election? | SELL | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 10-17 16:59 | Will White House post 200+ posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.8899230769 | $11.57 |
| 10-17 03:40 | Will Lindsey Vonn be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 10-17 00:57 | Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 Search & other revenue be above $65B? | SELL | 0.21 | $4.01 |
| 10-16 21:25 | Will N1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 10-16 14:58 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? | SELL | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 10-16 05:20 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $11.06 |
| 10-15 14:38 | Will Omar Cooper Jr. have 899.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.77 | $14.63 |
| 10-15 13:50 | Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above $16B? | SELL | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 10-15 08:37 | Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.13 |
| 10-14 19:05 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-22 House election by 10%-15%? | SELL | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 10-14 18:38 | Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 capital expenditures be above $65B? | SELL | 0.86 | $12.90 |
| 10-13 22:00 | Welltower (WELL) Q3 same store NOI (SSNOI) growth 21%+? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |