Paisley2696
0x4020cb72622a1f1d8d493e142c0446b3d93535a9
- Realised P&L
- $-23.94
- Volume
- $20.3k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $18.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $10.51 | +$0.01 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $4.20 | −$0.00 |
| Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $3.90 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.73at 0.810Ripple above $3.15 on January 31?
- +$0.71at 0.995Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12?
- +$0.46at 0.997Will Revolutionary Left Front win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election?
- +$0.43at 0.997Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025?
- +$0.43at 0.997Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 16:18 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.20 |
| 09-13 18:40 | Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.50 |
| 09-12 06:43 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.998 | $7.29 |
| 09-07 09:14 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.30 |
| 09-06 07:52 | Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | SELL | 0.997 | $13.07 |
| 09-02 19:51 | Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.90 |
| 08-31 15:12 | Will Koa Peat win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.10 |
| 08-29 14:52 | Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.19 |
| 08-28 00:35 | Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.20 |
| 08-24 18:55 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.49 |
| 08-24 18:52 | Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.998 | $12.39 |
| 08-13 11:02 | Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.80 |
| 08-10 19:17 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999342 | $7.50 |
| 08-03 07:41 | Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.60 |
| 07-29 21:50 | Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.49 |