shawncosta
0x40109a1b2166b0d18d468dde130747701f2c547a
- Realised P&L
- $-60.79
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $36.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Indies Tour of India T20s: India vs West Indies · India | 0.770 | 0.780 | $20.36 | +$0.26 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.575 | $16.28 | −$3.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.48at 0.550Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
- +$2.24at 0.840Will NightBirds Win Hitpoint Masters 2026 Summer
- +$0.49at 0.968Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$0.38at 0.977Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
- +$0.16at 0.996Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:05 | Will Lighter dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $34.58 |
| 01-30 15:44 | Will Ethena hit $0.37 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.67 |
| 01-30 14:11 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.9979999975 | $30.67 |
| 01-30 11:47 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.996 | $40.63 |
| 12-30 09:45 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.90 |
| 12-30 09:23 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $8.55 |
| 12-30 09:16 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | BUY | 0.99799996 | $10.87 |
| 12-30 08:08 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.49 |
| 12-29 20:16 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.62 |
| 12-29 20:06 | Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999874 | $29.60 |
| 12-29 19:53 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.41 |
| 10-31 14:56 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $13.76 |
| 10-30 19:57 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.33 |
| 10-30 19:19 | Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.34 |
| 10-08 09:49 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | SELL | 0.821 | $11.65 |