gfvjngff854654
0x3fde83084ffb1e79f23446a908dd65986283c478
- Realised P&L
- $-49.67
- Volume
- $20.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $4.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.825 | $4.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.55 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET · Up | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will "In the Grey" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.500Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
- +$2.3kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
- +$185.00at 0.500Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of August 10 2026?
- +$25.58at 0.190Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$18.46at 0.580Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 12:04 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.2k |
| 08-11 12:04 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.971 | $2.2k |
| 06-11 06:25 | Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 06:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 05-16 08:33 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.964 | $4.5k |
| 05-16 08:27 | Will "In the Grey" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.96 | $6.00 |
| 05-16 08:27 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev | BUY | 0.9179999165 | $10.00 |
| 01-26 15:16 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.995 | $552.44 |
| 01-24 12:36 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.996 | $553.00 |
| 09-17 11:41 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? | BUY | 0.1899999766 | $6.00 |
| 09-17 11:41 | Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 11:41 | Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999621 | $3.50 |
| 07-01 14:41 | Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |
| 07-01 14:41 | No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 07-01 14:40 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.717 | $10.00 |