0x3fa9e91f34b5e951ec1542b09f4b2ec55f2da149
0x3fa9e91f34b5e951ec1542b09f4b2ec55f2da149
- Realised P&L
- $2.84
- Volume
- $123.84
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $42.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.38at 0.224Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 170T tokens the week of September 28?
- +$1.54at 0.400Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?
- +$1.16at 0.412Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.777Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?
- +$0.15at 0.855Will OpenRouter process 185T or more tokens the week of October 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 05:43 | Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599997764 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:35 | Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 16:31 | Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 16:02 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.2B? | BUY | 0.829999502 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:48 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $3.0B? | BUY | 0.7799998674 | $2.00 |
| 10-09 15:39 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.35B? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:35 | Will BlackRock (BLK) Q3 quarterly total net inflows be above $150B? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:34 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 92% to 95%? | BUY | 0.8699999519 | $1.99 |
| 10-09 15:33 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:28 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:27 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:26 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:10 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 17.5%+? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:07 | Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 36%+? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 15:01 | Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 36%+? | BUY | 0.8399999493 | $1.99 |