ailenjudith
0x3f8fccfdff5f10a023f195560c28d43143b70a06
- Realised P&L
- $-267.28
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $192.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat? · No | 0.940 | 0.940 | $54.12 | +$0.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.970 | $50.41 | −$0.47 |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · No | 0.970 | 0.951 | $46.96 | −$0.94 |
| Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.760 | $40.73 | −$9.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$713.25at 0.550Reds vs. Angels
- +$704.16at 0.460XRP Up or Down on June 30?
- +$610.00at 0.500Ethereum Up or Down on July 2?
- +$557.13at 0.510Cubs vs. Braves
- +$84.00at 0.580Cardinals vs. Cubs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 11:34 | Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $41.69 |
| 09-09 11:58 | Cubs vs. Braves | BUY | 0.51 | $579.87 |
| 08-20 07:24 | Reds vs. Angels | BUY | 0.55 | $871.75 |
| 08-14 12:03 | Cubs vs. Blue Jays | BUY | 0.51 | $598.23 |
| 07-29 11:45 | Solana Up or Down on July 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $195.00 |
| 07-10 10:07 | Solana Up or Down on July 11? | BUY | 0.5 | $600.00 |
| 07-07 11:14 | Solana Up or Down on July 8? | BUY | 0.5 | $115.00 |
| 05-13 08:11 | Ethereum Up or Down on May 13? | BUY | 0.66 | $900.24 |