0x3f8A6050793c1282F8c2fe3538a35d6910A91e62-1780039203848
0x3f8a6050793c1282f8c2fe3538a35d6910a91e62
- Realised P&L
- $-342.46
- Volume
- $10.7k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $33.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.125 | $19.23 | −$0.77 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.895 | $8.95 | +$1.85 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.075 | $4.76 | −$10.24 |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.022 | $0.75 | −$4.25 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.258 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET · Up | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? · No | 0.352 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? · No | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$134.12at 0.183Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
- +$41.92at 0.155Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$28.46at 0.875US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$25.35at 0.710 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$24.33at 0.130Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 01:32 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.59 | $58.49 |
| 07-19 01:31 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.409 | $34.94 |
| 07-19 01:31 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | SELL | 0.9846960557 | $33.95 |
| 07-17 08:38 | Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | BUY | 0.5799999983 | $20.00 |
| 07-17 08:35 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299999951 | $20.00 |
| 07-17 08:33 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 07-14 20:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.07 |
| 07-14 17:48 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $6.88 |
| 07-14 17:48 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $10.75 |
| 07-14 17:48 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | SELL | 0.1188382838 | $10.80 |
| 07-12 02:30 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.157 | $11.42 |
| 07-08 00:03 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1589999777 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 09:50 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1239999803 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 09:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1929999863 | $10.00 |
| 07-03 09:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3349999585 | $5.00 |