lfg9677
0x3f6c54b9aed08737ac991afbb1bff734d178b211
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $13.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-20.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.828 | 0.425 | $2.7k | −$2.5k |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.394 | 0.220 | $542.43 | −$429.38 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$252.66at 0.720Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$149.71at 0.750Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$92.31at 0.520Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January?
- +$23.63at 0.894Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$16.96at 0.647Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 02:14 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3509999963 | $51.00 |
| 06-23 17:05 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.8799999985 | $47.94 |
| 06-22 13:45 | Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.64 | $30.75 |
| 05-22 18:45 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2385569155 | $112.30 |
| 05-22 18:44 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.49 | $113.95 |
| 05-05 04:09 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4308696301 | $859.51 |
| 03-08 02:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $649.71 |
| 02-23 01:26 | Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9745720157 | $649.71 |
| 02-18 04:27 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7300635193 | $2.2k |
| 01-23 02:54 | Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.75 | $500.00 |
| 01-03 14:48 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9178244501 | $3.0k |
| 01-03 14:41 | Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 01-03 14:40 | Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8943210612 | $200.00 |
| 01-03 14:37 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 01-03 14:37 | Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? | BUY | 0.309999998 | $100.00 |