mmarbles
0x3f62acb989dd53789f8453faa0b24060656ae744
- Realised P&L
- $-700.64
- Volume
- $8.67M
- Markets traded
- 650
- Open portfolio
- $530.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded650
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.1kat 0.940Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$12.8kat 0.618Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$12.7kat 0.828Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$5.1kat 0.500Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$4.2kat 0.500Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:42 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.244 | $9.51 |
| 09-14 01:11 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.1771804697 | $4.30 |
| 09-14 01:10 | Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0281168554 | $4.22 |
| 09-14 00:08 | Will Spencer Pratt be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.0014444444 | $0.13 |
| 09-11 18:49 | Will Rachel Campos-Duffy be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0045361591 | $5.10 |
| 09-09 19:57 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.164 | $0.09 |
| 09-06 21:28 | Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.017 | $1.28 |
| 09-06 21:27 | Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.0173185043 | $4.34 |
| 09-04 18:27 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.164 | $49.20 |
| 09-04 18:24 | Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.19 | $11.10 |
| 09-04 18:23 | Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.1887079201 | $27.02 |
| 09-04 02:29 | Will Harrison Fields be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.99 |
| 09-04 02:26 | Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.12 | $35.42 |
| 09-03 22:17 | Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.045 | $1.06 |
| 09-03 16:01 | Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.0646153846 | $3.36 |