0x3f4f83944a66d052285405e8970e56cae69d503a
- Realised P&L
- $30.97
- Volume
- $430.34
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $22.15
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.935 | $6.15 | +$1.15 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.235 | $5.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.555 | $4.96 | −$0.04 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.350 | 0.260 | $3.71 | −$1.29 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.075 | $0.99 | −$4.01 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.035 | $0.75 | −$4.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.81at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$14.05at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$8.36at 0.382Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
- +$6.51at 0.440Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$4.33at 0.278Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 09:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999642 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 22:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 11:18 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 03:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 04:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 03:48 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 19:46 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 07:44 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $5.00 |
| 09-07 07:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998541 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 00:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 14:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $5.00 |
| 08-25 15:16 | Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.365999808 | $1.14 |
| 08-20 13:52 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 08-18 16:46 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 08-18 08:38 | Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |