katanaAob
0x3f4bab51c0894611045d5faa7cc9605b3b45f574
- Realised P&L
- $435.64
- Volume
- $219.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,239
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,239
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$332.51at 0.240Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
- +$185.44at 0.773Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$172.72at 0.134Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$152.56at 0.155Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?
- +$109.75at 0.512Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 03:21 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $38.50 |
| 09-19 03:18 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $28.89 |
| 09-19 03:15 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $60.50 |
| 09-17 08:58 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.161 | $5.82 |
| 09-17 02:44 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $3.18 |
| 09-17 02:43 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $20.25 |
| 09-17 02:43 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.69 |
| 09-17 02:43 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.78 |
| 09-16 02:35 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 09-16 02:32 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.78 |
| 09-15 15:39 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 09-15 15:35 | Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.90 |
| 09-15 15:32 | Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $12.69 |
| 09-13 17:09 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.33 |
| 09-13 16:10 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $16.64 |