katanaAob
0x3f4bab51c0894611045d5faa7cc9605b3b45f574
- Realised P&L
- $638.64
- Volume
- $207.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,197
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,197
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$332.51at 0.240Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
- +$172.72at 0.134Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$109.75at 0.512Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26?
- +$100.06at 0.797Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-29?
- +$93.60at 0.064Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 03:22 | Will no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.044 | $2.61 |
| 08-03 02:54 | Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? | BUY | 0.36 | $4.90 |
| 08-02 03:31 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.87 | $13.84 |
| 08-01 03:03 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.95 |
| 08-01 03:00 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.85 | $9.35 |
| 08-01 02:54 | Will JetBlue Airways announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 05:03 | Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? | BUY | 0.053 | $1.01 |
| 07-31 04:12 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 07-31 03:44 | Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? | BUY | 0.046 | $5.06 |
| 07-30 15:31 | Will no final Senate confirmation vote be held for Todd Blanche as Attorney General by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $0.75 |
| 07-30 13:13 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.95 | $18.05 |
| 07-30 13:07 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.0504284081 | $1.76 |
| 07-30 09:34 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.761 | $3.81 |
| 07-30 09:32 | Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $24.15 |
| 07-30 07:00 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | SELL | 0.92 | $50.60 |