thisisthewaymamba
0x3f48117184db84f7eebb0ac37e730651dfc0e69b
- Realised P&L
- $-141.43
- Volume
- $254.3k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.258Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?
- +$875.43at 0.612Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$873.09at 0.476 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$718.86at 0.356Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$703.54at 0.452Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.88 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 23:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8799999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 03:49 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3629999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-06 13:58 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4699999985 | $100.00 |
| 09-03 14:39 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4299999985 | $100.00 |
| 08-31 11:55 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.7567201602 | $306.03 |
| 08-31 11:46 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.7427304458 | $1.2k |
| 08-28 08:51 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.9775248564 | $2.5k |
| 08-28 08:50 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.9769999999 | $250.00 |
| 08-28 08:42 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.9769999999 | $250.00 |
| 08-22 09:24 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3399999978 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 09:18 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.347192089 | $709.38 |
| 07-25 09:18 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $196.35 |
| 07-20 03:52 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.2227308914 | $891.71 |
| 07-19 22:10 | Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9167007782 | $500.00 |