PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

lunaaaa

0x3f3a72ee9bdf3331bea25668506800256cdbd288

Realised P&L
$-61.42
Volume
$13.6k
Markets traded
195
Open portfolio
$9.59

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded195
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2101.000$4.76+$3.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yes0.4601.000$2.17+$1.17
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? · Yes0.6801.000$1.47+$0.47
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? · Yes0.3700.179$0.49$0.51
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4200.114$0.27$0.73
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes0.1500.037$0.25$0.75
OKX IPO in 2026? · Yes0.4280.075$0.18$0.82
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00$1.00
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes0.0440.000$0.00$3.00
US strike on Colombia by March 31? · Yes0.0980.000$0.00$1.00
US forces enter Iran by March 7? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00$1.00
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$0.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.0470.000$0.00$1.00
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? · Yes0.0740.000$0.00$0.56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-17 14:21Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?SELL0.72$0.93
03-17 14:20Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?SELL0.24$0.94
03-17 14:20USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?SELL0.59$0.96
03-17 14:20Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL0.16$1.00
03-17 14:20Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?SELL0.64$1.18
03-17 14:20Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?SELL0.027$2.93
03-17 14:20Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?SELL0.3$1.76
03-17 14:19Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?SELL0.8$8.69
03-16 08:00Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?BUY0.16$1.00
03-16 06:56Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.998$1.04
03-16 06:56Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?SELL0.997$2.85
03-12 13:50Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?BUY0.4599997608$1.00
03-12 08:04Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?BUY0.3489998353$1.00
03-10 09:48Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.0990001714$10.00
03-10 06:52Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.77$1.00
Trader lunaaaa · PolyBot