sergiomaddox
0x3f34ed625970fec1ebbbfd103227e079a328feed
- Realised P&L
- $-763.46
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $165.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the KY-03 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.978 | $57.61 | +$1.62 |
| Will the Republican Party win the AL-07 House seat? · No | 0.980 | 0.995 | $56.62 | +$0.83 |
| Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.960 | 0.916 | $51.32 | −$2.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$911.60at 0.570Twins vs. Athletics
- +$741.00at 0.430Padres vs. Marlins
- +$648.00at 0.460Phillies vs. Reds
- +$1.90at 0.950Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?
- +$1.39at 0.972Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 12:50 | Solana Up or Down on August 23? | BUY | 0.5 | $300.00 |
| 08-18 12:16 | Dodgers vs. Rockies | BUY | 0.73 | $859.94 |
| 06-04 10:11 | Twins vs. Athletics | BUY | 0.57 | $1.2k |
| 05-14 11:58 | Thunder vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.63 | $618.03 |