VdBellen
0x3f23b30667c4a380115bffd90c8ffb4d955327cb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $91.5k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.390Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$555.11at 0.684Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
- +$485.50at 0.171Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?
- +$435.41at 0.850US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$286.79at 0.148Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 05:28 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $120.00 |
| 09-04 05:27 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $600.00 |
| 08-31 17:44 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.42 | $420.00 |
| 07-06 12:28 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.875 | $875.00 |
| 06-26 15:25 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $415.00 |
| 06-26 15:23 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $88.74 |
| 06-02 19:17 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $936.00 |
| 05-29 05:34 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $850.00 |
| 05-29 05:32 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.3k |
| 05-24 16:16 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.77 |
| 05-24 16:13 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0403150333 | $25.00 |
| 05-21 16:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.941 | $470.50 |
| 05-04 14:12 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $827.60 |
| 04-22 14:23 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $64.00 |
| 04-19 21:03 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $297.50 |