Asttttt
0x3f0def4c8fd51a73de0db0d0f2242bbf137bdeb2
- Realised P&L
- $-38.42
- Volume
- $224.83
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $5.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-17.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.115 | $5.98 | −$30.94 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 15? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 14? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 14? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.20at 0.410Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on January 22?
- +$3.20at 0.350Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 12?
- +$0.67at 0.690Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12?
- +$0.30at 0.370Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?
- +$-0.15at 0.160Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 17:40 | Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.71 | $36.92 |
| 03-15 12:23 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 15? | BUY | 0.0297323798 | $1.00 |
| 03-14 23:10 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15? | SELL | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 03-13 13:24 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 14? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 03-13 13:23 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 03-12 21:23 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12? | BUY | 0.6899998712 | $1.50 |
| 03-12 21:23 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 03-12 13:09 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 14? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.03 |
| 03-12 13:01 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 03-11 21:54 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 12? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 03-11 21:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 12? | BUY | 0.25 | $0.41 |
| 03-11 20:40 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 12? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 03-11 20:32 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 03-05 22:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 03-05 22:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6? | SELL | 0.15 | $2.25 |