0x3f0cb9b22fbdb17f307f81ff838e5b047b5dd1da
0x3f0cb9b22fbdb17f307f81ff838e5b047b5dd1da
- Realised P&L
- $-7.84
- Volume
- $176.88
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $6.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.963 | $1.63 | +$0.63 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.835 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? · No | 0.660 | 0.710 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.270 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.740 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.505 | $0.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.84at 0.369Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 20?
- +$3.73at 0.217Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?
- +$1.54at 0.400Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.42at 0.610Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 22:45 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:38 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:26 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:54 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:08 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:06 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:35 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 23:04 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:26 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:05 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 13:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 05:39 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on October 1? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 20:49 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:55 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |