SeraphicSpirit
0x3ee0dccdcb6eb516ac94490d277fac2fc620d2df
- Realised P&L
- $-102.84
- Volume
- $33.7k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $55.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.009 | $44.38 | +$2.47 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 28? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $5.55 | −$1.11 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 28? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $2.50 | −$22.50 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 29? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $2.10 | −$0.23 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $0.68 | −$0.08 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.004 | $0.09 | +$0.01 |
| Is John McAfee alive? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.64 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 25? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.04at 0.570Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$4.76at 0.627Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.91at 0.987Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20?
- +$0.35at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16?
- +$-0.00at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 09:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.009 | $4.54 |
| 09-28 09:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.008 | $5.26 |
| 09-28 09:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.53 |
| 09-28 09:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.008 | $11.20 |
| 09-28 08:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.0076993007 | $11.01 |
| 09-28 05:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.003 | $4.42 |
| 09-16 12:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16? | SELL | 0.998 | $189.34 |
| 04-20 12:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? | BUY | 0.9855828163 | $2.3k |
| 04-20 09:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? | SELL | 0.994 | $2.3k |
| 12-07 10:43 | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | BUY | 0.5699999986 | $8.00 |
| 10-24 17:54 | Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.48 |
| 10-24 17:52 | Is John McAfee alive? | BUY | 0.0339999351 | $0.50 |
| 10-24 17:52 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6269999245 | $8.00 |
| 06-08 18:19 | Will a candidate from another party win Rhode Island Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |
| 06-08 18:13 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | BUY | 0.0649262136 | $8.80 |