phaller1212
0x3e964287a08ea60b6445ecee56158e4a1fe0b306
- Realised P&L
- $-6.9k
- Volume
- $590.5k
- Markets traded
- 6,255
- Open portfolio
- $8.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,255
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$502.34at 0.014Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
- +$377.16at 0.318Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
- +$331.84at 0.232Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
- +$268.70at 0.480Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
- +$251.16at 0.239Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 20:35 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on October 6? | SELL | 0.1228328612 | $2.17 |
| 10-05 20:34 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 6? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.35 |
| 10-05 20:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 6? | SELL | 0.76 | $3.91 |
| 10-05 20:33 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 5? | SELL | 0.986 | $5.06 |
| 10-05 20:33 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 6? | SELL | 0.54 | $5.77 |
| 10-05 20:32 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 6? | SELL | 0.5821955896 | $12.14 |
| 10-05 20:32 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 7? | SELL | 0.8231294118 | $13.99 |
| 10-05 20:32 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on October 5? | SELL | 0.27 | $11.94 |
| 10-05 20:31 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 6? | SELL | 0.7276042486 | $18.50 |
| 10-05 18:29 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 5? | BUY | 0.0811748375 | $9.75 |
| 10-05 17:34 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | SELL | 0.244 | $9.64 |
| 10-05 17:10 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on October 7? | BUY | 0.3704999926 | $1.95 |
| 10-05 17:07 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 5? | BUY | 0.2529999981 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 16:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.90 |
| 10-05 16:10 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on October 7? | BUY | 0.8 | $13.60 |