swalls
0x3e8a8e665afa7a74fb047e2fe7eb29d230d3524e
- Realised P&L
- $34.67
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $67.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? · No | 0.530 | 0.785 | $27.94 | +$9.08 |
| Will “Swim” by BTS win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.450 | $26.19 | −$7.57 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-09-26? · No | 0.600 | 0.635 | $13.30 | +$0.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.89at 0.450Will Real Madrid win La Liga?
- +$26.06at 0.530Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
- +$24.90at 0.692Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 14?
- +$23.23at 0.660Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
- +$3.43at 0.760Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:01 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? | BUY | 0.9819999979 | $7.58 |
| 01-30 16:39 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.92 |
| 01-30 16:04 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.13 |
| 01-30 15:20 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.52 |
| 01-30 12:49 | Will Ethena hit $0.33 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $55.80 |
| 12-30 09:20 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999245 | $11.02 |
| 12-30 01:09 | Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.27 |
| 12-29 22:58 | Will XRP reach $3.20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999082 | $6.83 |
| 12-29 20:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.992 | $17.29 |
| 12-29 19:57 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $50.69 |
| 10-30 18:51 | Will Tencent have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.74 |
| 10-30 17:56 | Will Solana reach $250 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.39 |
| 10-30 17:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.9914279198 | $27.73 |
| 09-29 16:17 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.13 |
| 09-29 05:28 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.06 |