onchainretard
0x3e775deb4df4b10645bb5d67814cb6cbd0a6e626
- Realised P&L
- $3.2k
- Volume
- $262.8k
- Markets traded
- 879
- Open portfolio
- $420.98
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded879
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.753 | 0.930 | $139.50 | +$26.50 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in September? · No | 0.573 | 0.690 | $55.20 | +$9.40 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in September? · No | 0.615 | 0.630 | $50.40 | +$1.20 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.922 | $46.13 | +$11.13 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? · No | 0.675 | 0.791 | $40.49 | +$5.96 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.984 | $39.36 | +$4.56 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September? · No | 0.840 | 0.845 | $33.80 | +$0.20 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.805 | $16.10 | +$6.10 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $765 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.433 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$498.08at 0.909Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
- +$474.72at 0.050Will Google dip to $300 in Nov 25-28?
- +$361.78at 0.474Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 Week of May 4 2026?
- +$359.93at 0.370Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week?
- +$357.89at 0.004Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 14:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.675 | $34.53 |
| 07-29 18:01 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 07-29 00:07 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 07-27 23:59 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.4753846154 | $61.80 |
| 07-27 14:55 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $112.22 |
| 07-27 14:55 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $11.84 |
| 07-27 02:34 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 27? | SELL | 0.0205 | $0.41 |
| 07-27 01:21 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July? | SELL | 0.68 | $31.53 |
| 07-27 00:22 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.56 |
| 07-27 00:21 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July? | BUY | 0.8155555556 | $73.40 |
| 07-27 00:21 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $67.83 |
| 07-26 23:56 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July? | SELL | 0.71 | $28.40 |
| 07-26 23:55 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July? | BUY | 0.65 | $105.73 |
| 07-26 23:22 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July? | BUY | 0.36 | $9.01 |
| 07-26 23:22 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $14.40 |