0x3E68ce62E0cb57030974B8547EE348829A7C760f-1761652446048
0x3e68ce62e0cb57030974b8547ee348829a7c760f
- Realised P&L
- $-647.64
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $34.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 1%? · No | 0.962 | 0.973 | $19.46 | +$0.22 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.981 | $14.71 | +$0.61 |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.679 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.22 |
| Warriors vs. Celtics · Warriors | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.17 |
| Hawks vs. Knicks · Hawks | 0.337 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.80 |
| Knicks vs. Nets · Nets | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.30 |
| Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.103 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.00 |
| Lakers vs. Rockets · Rockets | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$114.00 |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$279.44 |
| Cavaliers vs. Mavericks · Mavericks | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.24 |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic · Cavaliers | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Wizards vs. Trail Blazers · Wizards | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.52 |
| Timberwolves vs. 76ers · Timberwolves | 0.458 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$360.00 |
| 76ers vs. Kings · Kings | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.93at 0.508Knicks vs. Rockets
- +$147.44at 0.627Spurs vs. Clippers
- +$129.58at 0.459Timberwolves vs. Lakers
- +$127.40at 0.329Warriors vs. Jazz
- +$96.50at 0.514Celtics vs. Hawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 09:06 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 08-25 09:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.955 | $17.19 |
| 07-29 06:39 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.91 | $16.38 |
| 07-29 06:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $14.15 |
| 06-30 09:39 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $11.94 |
| 06-24 09:34 | Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.988 | $19.74 |
| 06-24 09:32 | Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? | SELL | 0.994 | $22.86 |
| 05-23 08:53 | Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $21.62 |
| 04-23 07:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $119.40 |
| 04-18 09:26 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.33 | $114.02 |
| 04-06 10:43 | Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.1 | $57.71 |
| 04-03 09:01 | Timberwolves vs. 76ers | BUY | 0.45 | $348.12 |
| 04-02 08:31 | Spurs vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.62 | $242.35 |
| 04-01 10:48 | Nuggets vs. Jazz | BUY | 0.08 | $70.29 |
| 03-31 08:22 | Knicks vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.5 | $147.93 |