weathermess
0x3e3736fd7f2e8de60f72bfac5655cfafe7a0f8b6
- Realised P&L
- $87.76
- Volume
- $168.6k
- Markets traded
- 531
- Open portfolio
- $686.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded531
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? · Yes | 0.987 | 1.000 | $686.85 | +$8.64 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.28 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7? · No | 0.998 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$558.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.98at 0.605Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 15?
- +$68.28at 0.942Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 20?
- +$60.31at 0.331Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-14?
- +$36.26at 0.936Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?
- +$24.81at 0.952Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on September 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 14:31 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9883613445 | $89.39 |
| 10-15 14:27 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.992 | $32.49 |
| 10-15 14:23 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9920830102 | $112.58 |
| 10-15 13:53 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $49.00 |
| 10-15 13:52 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9772506211 | $129.81 |
| 10-15 12:21 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9896316759 | $80.61 |
| 10-15 11:33 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.85 |
| 10-15 11:22 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $100.03 |
| 10-15 11:21 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $104.77 |
| 10-15 03:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9866666667 | $14.80 |
| 10-14 16:41 | Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-14? | BUY | 0.32 | $800.00 |
| 10-14 16:26 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $105.68 |
| 10-14 15:58 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.944759462 | $99.95 |
| 10-14 13:41 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14? | BUY | 0.9899999991 | $999.95 |
| 10-14 13:21 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.9758700345 | $90.40 |