paeeth
0x3e2ec1283586dfd309e39f1953a7f6e6b9aea483
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $29.9k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $70.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 1.000 | $49.00 | +$20.10 |
| Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.035 | $17.50 | −$82.50 |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.034 | $3.35 | −$15.65 |
| Will US annex any territory in 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.059 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$220.00 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? · Yes | 0.573 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? · Yes | 0.479 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$191.72 |
| Will Trump Media invest in $TRUMP before July? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.89at 0.551Trump tariff on EU alcohol before May?
- +$15.74at 0.932Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?
- +$6.64at 0.720Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?
- +$5.72at 0.070Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?
- +$4.55at 0.540Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-03 01:38 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $37.74 |
| 03-14 03:07 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 03-07 16:35 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.58975099 | $58.98 |
| 01-22 01:37 | Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $51.53 |
| 01-20 00:06 | Will US annex any territory in 2026? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 03:25 | Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | BUY | 0.5729999427 | $2.00 |
| 06-03 06:56 | Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office? | BUY | 0.0699999984 | $40.00 |
| 05-01 04:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | BUY | 0.47930075 | $191.72 |
| 04-30 21:21 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | SELL | 0.999 | $234.74 |
| 04-23 05:06 | Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | BUY | 0.9319999999 | $219.00 |
| 04-14 05:45 | Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? | SELL | 0.630998 | $31.55 |
| 04-12 00:47 | Trump tariff on EU alcohol before May? | SELL | 0.7923171135 | $71.81 |
| 04-07 22:06 | Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | SELL | 0.013 | $6.55 |
| 03-25 17:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | BUY | 0.44 | $220.00 |
| 03-25 17:00 | Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? | SELL | 0.957 | $26.80 |