0x3df403cb28148689d2c4f1ff7a88f77115cbbc8b
0x3df403cb28148689d2c4f1ff7a88f77115cbbc8b
- Realised P&L
- $2.80
- Volume
- $292.67
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $13.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.825 | $3.06 | +$2.06 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.770 | 0.986 | $2.50 | +$0.55 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.530 | $1.71 | +$0.71 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.963 | $1.44 | +$0.44 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.235 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.835 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.805 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.700 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.425 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.33at 0.280Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$2.61at 0.440Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 02:31 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 18:28 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 10:18 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 01:39 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 16:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 23:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 15:16 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699996918 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:41 | Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 14:37 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:38 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 15:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 14:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 13:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |