HexFragLord
0x3dd8444ede5439a194a49f0440009db5eb718c69
- Realised P&L
- $-494.84
- Volume
- $21.1k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $119.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$63.64at 0.230Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
- +$57.76at 0.234Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
- +$28.94at 0.380Grokipedia released by December 31?
- +$21.90at 0.341Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
- +$17.78at 0.360Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 00:38 | Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 00:38 | Discord IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.559 | $5.19 |
| 06-29 00:37 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 00:37 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 00:36 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 00:35 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.22 |
| 06-29 00:35 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.019 | $4.32 |
| 06-29 00:34 | Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.0889999923 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 00:33 | Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1176737479 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 00:33 | Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 00:33 | Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 00:33 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 01:50 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0778678625 | $75.00 |
| 06-15 01:49 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.076327097 | $20.00 |
| 06-15 01:46 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0759999867 | $5.00 |