Ser-Keiser
0x3daae1cd25526295d72df5f3503ebe595bfe41c4
- Realised P&L
- $-490.39
- Volume
- $20.4k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $39.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.065 | $29.30 | −$20.70 |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.175 | $9.83 | −$0.17 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.576 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic · Katie Boulter | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.04at 0.430Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
- +$34.89at 0.578Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?
- +$23.71at 0.894Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$16.54at 0.822MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$14.68at 0.630Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 09:55 | Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1779999863 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 14:45 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0127827064 | $19.97 |
| 08-11 10:03 | Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1109165945 | $50.00 |
| 08-11 10:03 | Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0320037643 | $50.00 |
| 06-13 10:33 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.153 | $9.56 |
| 06-13 09:47 | HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic | BUY | 0.5499999807 | $10.00 |
| 06-02 01:29 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 16:02 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5764235704 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 18:57 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.62 |
| 05-30 13:29 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.5499999633 | $3.00 |
| 05-24 19:10 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $229.01 |
| 05-23 15:00 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | SELL | 0.62 | $107.75 |
| 05-23 05:54 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999997 | $200.00 |
| 05-18 14:56 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? | BUY | 0.5753968244 | $100.00 |
| 05-14 15:00 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |