sayhi
0x3da16bfbf77100ee8eecec382fe2f3a2fea4c8b3
- Realised P&L
- $25.75
- Volume
- $36.4k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $245.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August? · No | 0.984 | 0.984 | $244.89 | −$0.12 |
| Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.817 | 0.055 | $0.82 | −$11.42 |
| Linea airdrop in Q2 2025? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.10 |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.30 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.69 |
| Will Solana dip to $130 in November? · No | 0.763 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.50 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will Solana dip to $140 in November? · No | 0.584 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.92 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.74at 0.994Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$17.94at 0.932Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$7.66at 0.995Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$5.28at 0.979Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?
- +$4.11at 0.981Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-01 15:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $106.24 |
| 02-01 15:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $109.90 |
| 01-01 14:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $127.17 |
| 01-01 14:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $111.25 |
| 12-17 06:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.87 | $32.19 |
| 11-06 14:39 | Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | SELL | 0.461 | $2.31 |
| 11-06 14:38 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | SELL | 0.66 | $3.30 |
| 11-06 14:38 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 11-05 01:41 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 11-05 01:35 | Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 11-05 01:34 | Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | SELL | 0.171 | $2.05 |
| 11-04 15:53 | Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | SELL | 0.17 | $1.02 |
| 11-04 15:49 | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.91 |
| 11-04 15:15 | Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 11-04 15:13 | Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |