0x3d8891a8DACc3B38748372fb2A51d92F57EC39d8-1776488672016
0x3d8891a8dacc3b38748372fb2a51d92f57ec39d8
- Realised P&L
- $-164.77
- Volume
- $144.9k
- Markets traded
- 238
- Open portfolio
- $19.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded238
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.017 | $6.68 | −$28.32 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.038 | $4.66 | −$0.34 |
| Christopher Luxon out by September 30? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.015 | $4.34 | −$107.65 |
| Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · No | 0.220 | 0.055 | $2.50 | −$7.50 |
| Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.001 | $0.85 | −$49.15 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.001 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$226.67at 0.150US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$173.67at 0.408Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16?
- +$169.90at 0.029Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
- +$101.29at 0.550US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$92.75at 0.307Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 19:24 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | BUY | 0.4299999979 | $50.00 |
| 07-30 09:12 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 400m and 500m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0169999831 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 09:10 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.67 |
| 07-30 09:07 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 400m and 500m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0087188585 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 09:07 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 400m by August 31? | BUY | 0.0076231588 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 08:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5299999936 | $25.00 |
| 07-30 08:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5299999936 | $25.00 |
| 07-30 08:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 08:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 22:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3099999926 | $25.00 |
| 07-29 22:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |