marario
0x3d74031b1e464ac2a662aac0b17536668972596b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $177.3k
- Markets traded
- 678
- Open portfolio
- $1.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded678
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$264.60at 0.026Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3?
- +$232.69at 0.028Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18?
- +$137.36at 0.080Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 20?
- +$121.68at 0.028Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25?
- +$104.00at 0.021Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 14:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.0489999982 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 17:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 13? | BUY | 0.3399999959 | $1.66 |
| 09-13 17:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.10 |
| 09-13 17:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.76 |
| 09-12 19:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.0329999994 | $1.62 |
| 09-12 13:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.0289999997 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 13:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.0169999998 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 14:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? | SELL | 0.262600104 | $10.10 |
| 09-10 11:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |
| 08-30 10:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 30? | BUY | 0.0459999902 | $4.27 |
| 08-30 09:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 30? | BUY | 0.0460000005 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 21:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 28? | BUY | 0.0189999963 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 12:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on August 27? | BUY | 0.0891734906 | $7.44 |
| 08-27 12:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on August 27? | BUY | 0.0879999627 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 10:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on August 24? | BUY | 0.1018384093 | $11.23 |