PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

marario

0x3d74031b1e464ac2a662aac0b17536668972596b

Realised P&L
$-1.6k
Volume
$177.3k
Markets traded
678
Open portfolio
$1.43

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded678
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 29? · Yes0.0490.070$1.43+$0.43
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 18? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 25? · Yes0.0280.000$0.00−$2.13
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? · Yes0.0160.000$0.00−$15.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20? · No0.0700.000$0.00−$2.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? · No0.0820.000$0.00−$4.17
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 30? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 8? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00−$12.77
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00−$4.00
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00−$3.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00−$6.10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17? · No0.0230.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 10? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$8.49
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 19? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00−$9.27

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-29 14:57Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 29?BUY0.0489999982$1.00
09-13 17:18Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 13?BUY0.3399999959$1.66
09-13 17:17Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13?SELL0.016$1.10
09-13 17:17Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13?SELL0.007$0.76
09-12 19:02Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13?BUY0.0329999994$1.62
09-12 13:39Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13?BUY0.0289999997$2.00
09-12 13:39Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13?BUY0.0169999998$1.00
09-10 14:24Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10?SELL0.262600104$10.10
09-10 11:19Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10?BUY0.1299999982$5.00
08-30 10:46Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 30?BUY0.0459999902$4.27
08-30 09:30Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 30?BUY0.0460000005$5.00
08-27 21:51Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 28?BUY0.0189999963$5.00
08-27 12:45Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on August 27?BUY0.0891734906$7.44
08-27 12:44Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on August 27?BUY0.0879999627$2.00
08-24 10:26Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on August 24?BUY0.1018384093$11.23