0x3d6f218c77d1d400796b7c163710cc16163234a0
0x3d6f218c77d1d400796b7c163710cc16163234a0
- Realised P&L
- $21.30
- Volume
- $404.37
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $98.53
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jan Hušbauer be the next Mayor of Prague? · No | 0.978 | 0.973 | $98.53 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.29at 0.860Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$3.85at 0.844Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
- +$1.16at 0.989Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:55 | Will Jan Hušbauer be the next Mayor of Prague? | BUY | 0.9789999997 | $55.00 |
| 10-05 15:53 | Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | SELL | 0.9516517475 | $37.85 |
| 10-04 10:20 | Will Jan Hušbauer be the next Mayor of Prague? | BUY | 0.9759999998 | $44.00 |
| 10-04 10:09 | Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? | BUY | 0.8296455128 | $33.00 |
| 09-24 22:29 | Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9781107015 | $50.00 |
| 09-22 21:55 | Will Thorsten Kornblum win the next Braunschweig mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9789999997 | $55.00 |
| 09-06 23:23 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8299999589 | $18.38 |
| 09-03 12:28 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8499999989 | $80.00 |