NotReallySure
0x3d4556d77c616e1f88793b68c8ee5187d086020f
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $172.8k
- Markets traded
- 2,771
- Open portfolio
- $33.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,771
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.50at 0.020Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Visual Effects at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$96.90at 0.030Will "The Architect" by Kacey Musgraves win Best Country Song?
- +$92.14at 0.040Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31?
- +$92.00at 0.030Pro Football: Will OBJ sign with a team in 2026?
- +$64.57at 0.070Danny Ryan as next executive director of Ethereum Foundation?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 23:03 | 49ers vs. Seahawks | SELL | 0.42 | $6.30 |
| 10-11 14:38 | Eagles vs. Jaguars | SELL | 0.35 | $10.50 |
| 10-11 00:41 | Nevada vs. UTEP | SELL | 0.12 | $3.60 |
| 10-11 00:10 | UAB vs. Memphis | SELL | 0.17 | $5.10 |
| 10-11 00:01 | North Dakota State vs. UNLV | SELL | 0.41 | $5.74 |
| 10-10 21:53 | Giants vs. Commanders | BUY | 0.37 | $5.18 |
| 10-09 01:57 | Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-05 10:25 | Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | SELL | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 10-04 19:10 | Cardinals vs. Giants | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 10-04 18:58 | Cardinals vs. Giants | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 10-04 18:55 | Patriots vs. Bills | SELL | 0.38 | $5.70 |
| 09-29 18:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.45 | $6.75 |
| 09-27 18:59 | Chiefs vs. Dolphins | SELL | 0.18 | $4.50 |
| 09-21 21:45 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.08 | $20.00 |
| 09-21 21:41 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.37 | $5.55 |